2010 Rogers Cup Preview

TENNISNEWS 2010 ROGERS CUP TORONTO PREVIEW 

The Rogers Cup in Toronto is about to get underway and has potential to be a great tournament. We'll be following the matches all week but let's kick things off with the TennisNewz tournament preview.

Nadal's Quarter:

Nadal's looking to have a strong hardcourt season in hopes of winning his first US Open and completing the career slam. He appears to be as fresh as we've seen him this late in the season and if his health holds up you've got to like his odds at the Open. But it all starts with this week in Toronto. A lot of people are going to pick Nadal to win the tournament and while I'd have to agree that he has a great chance, it's a bit too early to write off the rest of the field just yet. Funny things happen early in the hardcourt season and we often see top players make early exits as they adjust to the new surface and try to get back into competitive play after a long layoff. Nadal's first round match is likely going to be against Wawrinka. I wouldn't expect Stan to pull off the upset but Nadal would probably prefer an easier opponent in his first match since Wimbledon. Also in this quarter are Sam Querrey, Cilic, and Roddick. Querrey should make it through a couple of rounds to run into Nadal while Cilic and Roddick should meet to decide who plays Nadal in the quarters. If I had to make a prediction I'd say Cilic over Roddick with Nadal going through to the semis. I won't be at all surprised if that's not the case. Last season I picked Cilic to be the dark horse in the US Open Series events and he kept going out in the 1st round. With quality players in his first two rounds he may never make it to face Roddick. Andy is going to want to have a strong tournament after some poor results but I don't think he's going to be very happy with how this tournament plays out unless he really pulls his game together. Roddick still has the game to bring a great result in Toronto. Unfortunately this years warmup for the US Open is looking a lot like last season's so far. And even Nadal going through to the quarters isn't a given. Querrey never really gets much press but he's been great in the early hardcourt season the past couple of years and beat Andy Murray in the finals in LA.

Pick: Nadal over Cilic

Murray's Quarter:

Murray is probably not too happy about losing in LA where he was the clear favourite. He'll have an advantage over a number of players in Toronto, having already started his transition to hardcourt. He also has the toughest quarter in the draw for his playing style. It's good to see Malisse playing well but don't expect Murray to have much of a problem until his 2nd match. Gonzalez and Monfils would both be very tricky opponents for very different reasons. Either would be an entertaining match against Murray with Gonzalez trying to crush the ball every time he touches it, or Monfils running down everything with no regard for his personal safety. It's always a bit scary watching Monfils play on hardcourt and unfortunately his tendency to try to get to the ball by any means necessary has contributed to a number of injuries that have really handicapped his career. Murray should get through to the quarters with a couple of entertaining matches. The bottom section of this quarter is very interesting. Soderling is the odds-on favourite to make the quarters but it may not be easy. With Gulbis in the mix you never really know what you're going to get. He's started to pull his game together again after a couple of years playing well below his potential. He's an extremely talented player but lack of focus and commitment have been holding him back. We're still waiting for him to really break out with consistent play and work his way up the rankings. I wouldn't bet that this will be the week but you never know. The other very interesting player in this section of the draw is Nalbandian. After being out for a long time with injury he's back and rolling over players, the latest being Baghdatis in the Legg Mason final. Throughout Nalbandian's career he's been a quality player who sometimes steps it up for one season of the year and looks unstoppable. This hasn't translated into much grand slam success but some days he can beat anybody. I think he'll likely make it through to face Soderling. I don't know that he can keep up with the hard flat ball that Soderling hits and we'll probably see Robin going through to face Murray. Like most matches where Murray is up against a big hitter it will probably come down to what type of gameplan Andy comes out with. If he plays passive and waits for mistakes, Soderling will win pretty convincingly. He has no problem generating his own pace and hitting guys off the court. If Murray plays aggressive and doesn't let Soderling get comfortable, he could get through in a tight match. I'm going to pick Soderling in this one because I just don't like the matchup for Murray. Against any big hitter there's a chance Murray will get taken out. If that big hitter happens to also be one of the best players in the game, the chances are even higher. The one situation where I could see Murray making it through is if Soderling serves poorly. If he's getting a lot of 1st serves in, Murray won't be able to break him.

Pick: Soderling over Murray

Federer's Quarter:

I think everyone's going to be very interested to see how Federer plays this tournament. He has a pretty favourable draw and could make a pretty good run if he gets going and serves well. The biggest change I've noticed about his game in the past few years is that he's started letting players back into sets after he takes the lead and a lot of it has been from poor serving. It used to be that he'd get a break, then pickup his serving and not let his opponent have any chance to break back. But now more often than not he'll follow up a break with a really poor service game. What I'll be watching for in the first couple of rounds isn't if he wins the matches, but how many of those poor service games he tosses in. These can also show up when he's up a couple of breaks and has a poor game to give one of them back when he's serving for a set. Could still win in straight sets, it's just an indication that his focus is still dropping within matches and it can be a problem in later rounds. The biggest threat to Roger in this quarter is obviously going to be Berdych. A number of people are picking Berdych to make it through to the semifinals. I wouldn't go that far as he has a very difficult route, possibly playing Gasquet and Simon in his first two matches. Even though he's improved in this area a lot, consistency is still the issue with Berdych. He's been good for a long time and has never really been able to string together a full good season. I like how he's been playing this year though I'm still not convinced he's improved his consistency as much as a player like Soderling. He crashed out against Malisse at the Legg Mason and blamed the result on playing too early in the day. To me that's not a good sign and the pressure of expectation after a strong summer could cause him to take a few steps back. With a couple of potentially tough matches to start it wouldn't surprise me if he bows out early. My pick is for him to get through to the quarters to meet Federer but he could also lose his first match. Tough one to call.

Pick: Federer over Berdych

Djokovic's Quarter:

Novak has to really like the draw he's been given this year. He's got a nice clear path to the quarters with Davydenko the most likely opponent. Nikolay hasn't been getting very good results lately so it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see Baghdatis or Verdasco in his place to face Djokovic. Baghdatis has really started to turn his game around and is playing much closer to his potential than he has in a long time. After mostly disappearing from the main ATP tournaments and playing on the Challenger circuit to get some matches in and build his ranking back up he's playing consistent tennis at this level. He should get a lot of support from the fans in Toronto and I think that could boost him enough to make it to the quarters. But I don't see him or anyone else in this section of the draw taking out Djokovic.

Pick: Djokovic over Baghdatis

How about the Canadians?

This being the former Canadian Open, the Rogers Cup is a chance for some Canadian players to gain wildcard entries into the main draw and show their stuff on home soil. Unfortunately, things aren't looking very promising for the canucks. Dancevic is generally regarded as the top male Canadian player even though his ranking may not show it. He's pulled off some nice wins in the past and should be pretty fired up but a first round matchup against Wawrinka probably isn't what he was hoping for. I think Frank will go out and try to play aggressive to keep points short and Wawrinka off-rhythm. We've seen him play that way and do very well against top players for a set or so but it often leads to too many errors as the match wears on. I've got to go with Stan in this one. In the same section of the draw is Duclos. As far as I can tell this will be his first match of the year above the Challenger level and he's going to be up against Yen-Hsun Lu. I actually think Duclos would have been better off in the qualifying draw because Lu has now played a couple of matches and should be mentally pretty into the tournament. I've got to go with Lu in this one.

The other two Canadians are in Djokovic's section of the draw and their matches don't get any easier. It's unfortunate that Polansky has drawn Melzer in the first round. I could see him pickup up a win against a few guys in the draw but I don't think that Melzer is one of them. It's a tough one for Canada's current top ranked player. I'm excited to watch this match to see what he can do, but Melzer is going to be difficult. The lastt chance to see a Canadian in the 2nd round is going to be Milos Raonic when he meets Hanescu. Raonic is ranked just a bit below Polanky and at 19 is the youngest Canadian in the draw. He plays mostly the ITF Futures but has done alright in a few Challengers. Should be interesting to see him play but again I'm not expecting that he'll get through this first test. I think we'll be seeing more from him in a couple of years.