2009 Rogers Cup Montreal Preview

 

 

Well, Roger is back in the #1 world ranking and is the top seed in Montreal. I'm actually not sure how he'll play this week. After taking the French and Wimbledon to take the all-time grand slam lead, then having his twins born, it's tough to say how much time he's spent practicing and if he'll really be ready for competition. But after his summer so far I don't expect he's overly concerned about playing exceptional in his first tournament back. Federer has a pretty favorable draw which could let him play himself back into form before having any major tests. First up for him will be Canadian Frederic Niemeyer after he upset Igor Kunitsyn today. You can forgive yourself if you're not familiar with Frederic. He's been around for some time and is known to Canadian tennis fans, mainly for Davis Cup contributions, is currently ranked around 500th in the world (received a wild card into the draw) and is getting close to finishing his career. I'm expecting him to go out against Roger and just enjoy the experience. There's nothing in his game that can hurt Federer in any way so even a rusty Roger should be through fine to go up against Wawrinka or likely Stepanik. Wawrinka beat last year's surprise finalist Kiefer in their opening match today. Federer could have some more trouble in that round if he's not playing very well. Other notable players in his section of the draw are Giles Simon (who beat Federer last year at the Rogers in Toronto) and Jo-Wilfred Tsonga. Simon is playing against Canada's top ranked player Dancevic and their match was suspended due to rain this evening early in the first. Simon has had a pretty rough year after playing great last season and will be looking to get off to a good start to the hardcourt season. Tsonga will hope to better his first match loss to Isner in Washington last week. He won't have an easy first match this week as he will be facing Rainer Schuettler who beat Florent Serra easily this afternoon. Schuettler is playing fairly well this summer and could make it tough on Tsonga. Aside from Niemeyer there shouldn't be any big upsets in this quarter unless Dancevic can use the crowd to raise the level of his game and take out Simon when play resumes. But right after a long break anything can happen as we saw last week. Federer will likely make it through to the semis, beating Tsonga or Simon in the quarter.

 

 

I like Murray's chances to go all this way this tournament. I probably won't be picking him for a favorite going into the US Open but this week I think he's got a good shot. Murray has a good hardcourt game and will probably be more focused and prepared than Federer. There's a good chance that he will have to face Hewitt in his second match and that could pose a pretty big challenge with how Lleyton has been playing this summer. Monfils knocked off Safin this evening after returning from injury but I don't see him beating Hewitt. Monfils played a great third set today and looked pretty into it by the end. But I think Hewitt is better on hardcourt and is in better form right now. The bottom half of the quarter is the toughest of the tournament. Gonzalez, Haas and Davydenko could each make it through without it being a surprise. Ivo might even be able to serve his way into the quarters. I'm picking Davydenko to get to the quarter to face Murray because he's been playing really good lately but no surprises if it's Gonzo or Haas. Whoever gets through to the quarter could be a good test for Murray though I think the only one who could give him that much trouble is Gonzalez, even with Davydenko's recent plan. My guess is Murray makes it through.

 

 

Technically Djokovic's but Roddick has outplayed him this summer so I won't give either ownership of this section of the draw. Roddick had a pretty good return to competition last week in DC, losing to Del Potro in a final set tiebreak. There were definitely some problems with his game but overall it was a good outing and he should be able to build off of it this week. I like Andy's draw. Tursunov retired with an injury in his first round match today so Roddick will be facing Andreev first. He shouldn't have too much trouble in that one. Next up would probably be Verdasco. A few months ago that would have sounded like a really difficult match for Andy. We haven't heard a lot from Verdasco lately and had some not so great results earlier in the summer. He has the type of game that can beat Roddick but I'm giving Andy the edge as I don't expect Fernando to be in top shape yet. Djokovic also has a great draw. He will face Canada's Peter Polansky first, who won an all-Canadian battle this afternoon against fellow wild card Bruno Agostinelli, his Davis Cup doubles partner. Home court or not, Polansky's no match for Novak. His next opponent would be Youzhny or probably Isner. Marin Cilic was in this section of the draw but lost his first round match (again) to Youzhny. Unless he plays Isner and John has an unreal serving day there shouldn't be much stopping Djokovic from getting to the quarterfinal to probably face Roddick. That would be a good match. Novak doesn't mess around on hardcourt but is having a pretty poor season by his standards. Even with Andy's improved game Novak can beat him if he plays well. And if Andy doesn't hold his serve better than he did last week, Novak will beat him. If this match happens it could go either way and I'd give it to whoever is serving better that day.

 

 

I'll start with Del Potro's section of the quarter. He really didn't play his best in Washington and still came through with the win. Del Potro was really effected by the hot conditions and will be hoping for some cooler days in Montreal. I think he has the best draw of any of the top players with his toughest potential test being Berdych. Berdych has looked pretty good so far in summer but was not good last week. When he lost to Isner, John played well but Tomas served absolutely terribly. If he can't pick up that part of his game this week he'd be no match for Del Potro, maybe not even for Kohlschreiber. Unless he has a complete collapse, Del Potro should have no trouble getting to the quarter. Trying to predict his opponent isn't an easy task. Normally you'd say Nadal. Without seeing him test his knee yet it's a tough call. I believe there's a reasonably good chance he will pull out of the tournament at some point. I would advise he do that if anything feels off. Try and get some matches in but don't push is too hard. Even if he stays in the draw it's tough to say how he'll do. Nadal's first round match could be David Ferrer. Ferrer has really fallen back this year but still has potential to give Nadal a lot of trouble. He's beaten him before and would be a very difficult first competitive match since the French. Ferrer can still play like a top 10 player and it would not be a huge upset if he beat Rafa. Obviously Nadal is the better player, but he hasn't played competitively in a long time, wasn't even on the court for a long time until recently, his confidence in his game isn't what it was in the spring, and worse, his confidence in his body probably isn't there yet. That could be the biggest problem. If Nadal holds back physically he hits the ball too short, doesn't get quite the spin on the ball, can't push his opponents around as much, and leaves too many balls that sit up which can easily be attacked by a player like Ferrer. And if he isn't willing to scramble as much, getting the ball back into play when Ferrer attacks won't be as effective. That's when you see Nadal start to make errors you'd normally never see. On hardcourt, which has always worn down his knees late in the season, I don't know what Nadal is going to show up. It all depends on how good his knees actually are and how confidence he is in them. If he gets through his first match it would probably be Robredo or Querrey up next. If Nadal can win his first match and feels comfortable he'll gain a lot of confidence and should get better each round. I don't know if it will be enough to get past Del Potro in the quarters. Possible, but I really have no idea until watching his first match to gauge his condition. Even if he's okay physically I'd be surprised if he got past the quarters in his first tournament back.

 

Predictions:

 

I think that Andy Murray could take this one. There are some players who are able to really hurt his sometimes passive style (ie: Gonzo), but he's a good hardcourt player and I don't know that Federer will be in great form. The danger for Murray and everyone else in the draw could be that Federer should be very relaxed this week. And that's not a good thing for anyone but Federer. Even an out of form Federer is very dangerous when he's relaxed. If he stays relaxed and gets confidence after his first couple of matches, look out. I won't go into what I've noticed about Rogers game since his case of mono, but there are a number of things he's started to get back and with very little pressure on him anymore the rest could be coming back soon. I still give Murray the edge this week based on preparation. On the other side of the draw I'm expecting Djokovic or Roddick to get through. Probably Roddick. Djokovic is an amazing hardcourt player but is a bit off so far this year. Del Potro also has a good chance to make it to the final but will need to play better than he did last week. I think Roddick will be playing better. I'm not picking Nadal to get to the finals because I'm not confident his knees are well enough yet and I think he'll be smart and not push it too much if anything feels off. I'm also of the opinion that he could have some confidence issues (more confidence issues with is body than his game) that could be a problem. If you play a guy like Del Potro and leave the ball sitting up short too often, you're finished. But we will see what happens. There were plenty of surprises last week and will probably be more this week. It will be very interesting to see how both Federer and Nadal play.

 

UPDATE: Simon and Dancevic are back on court and Simon is walking away with it. Won the 1st 6-1 and is up 4-0 in the 2nd. I'm surprised they put them back out on court, they wouldn't have resumed play until almost 11 pm and it was suspended early in the first. Strange decision by the tournament ref in my opinion.

 

Check back for updates tomorrow.